US Midterms 2026 · California

California 2026 elections

Forecast for governor and 52 House races. Chances count wins in simulated elections. A forecast, not a result. Data as of Nov 1, 10:49 AM ET.

Governor

• California governor · Xavier Becerra (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.

House

• California's 1st Congressional District · Mike McGuire (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
• California's 2nd Congressional District · Jared Huffman (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
• California's 3rd Congressional District · Ami Bera (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
• California's 4th Congressional District · Both finalists are Democrats: Eric Jones and Mike Thompson.
• California's 5th Congressional District · Tom McClintock (R) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
• California's 6th Congressional District · Richard Pan (D) wins in 96 of 100 simulations.
• California's 7th Congressional District · Both finalists are Democrats: Doris Matsui and Mai Vang.
• California's 8th Congressional District · John Garamendi (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
• California's 9th Congressional District · Josh Harder (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
• California's 10th Congressional District · Mark DeSaulnier (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
• California's 11th Congressional District · Both finalists are Democrats: Connie Chan and Scott Wiener.
• California's 12th Congressional District · Both finalists are Democrats: Jamie Joyce and Lateefah Simon.
• California's 13th Congressional District · Adam Gray (D) wins in 98 of 100 simulations.
• California's 14th Congressional District · Both finalists are Democrats: Melissa Hernandez and Aisha Wahab.
• California's 15th Congressional District · Kevin Mullin (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
• California's 16th Congressional District · Sam Liccardo (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
• California's 17th Congressional District · Ro Khanna (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
• California's 18th Congressional District · Zoe Lofgren (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
• California's 19th Congressional District · Jimmy Panetta (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
• California's 20th Congressional District · Vince Fong (R) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
• California's 21st Congressional District · Jim Costa (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
• California's 22nd Congressional District · Randy Villegas (D) wins in 75 of 100 simulations.
• California's 23rd Congressional District · Jay Obernolte (R) wins in 97 of 100 simulations.
• California's 24th Congressional District · Salud Carbajal (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
• California's 25th Congressional District · Raul Ruiz (D) wins in 99 of 100 simulations.
• California's 26th Congressional District · Jacqui Irwin (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
• California's 27th Congressional District · George Whitesides (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
• California's 28th Congressional District · Judy Chu (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
• California's 29th Congressional District · Both finalists are Democrats: Angelica Dueñas and Luz Rivas.
• California's 30th Congressional District · Laura Friedman (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
• California's 31st Congressional District · Gil Cisneros (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
• California's 32nd Congressional District · Brad Sherman (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
• California's 33rd Congressional District · Pete Aguilar (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
• California's 34th Congressional District · Both finalists are Democrats: Jimmy Gomez and Angela Gonzales-Torres.
• California's 35th Congressional District · Norma Torres (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
• California's 36th Congressional District · Ted Lieu (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
• California's 37th Congressional District · Both finalists are Democrats: Sydney Kamlager-Dove and Samantha Mota.
• California's 38th Congressional District · Hilda Solis (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
• California's 39th Congressional District · Mark Takano (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
• California's 40th Congressional District · Both finalists are Republicans: Ken Calvert and Young Kim.
• California's 41st Congressional District · Linda Sánchez (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
• California's 42nd Congressional District · Robert Garcia (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
• California's 43rd Congressional District · Maxine Waters (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
• California's 44th Congressional District · Nanette Barragán (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
• California's 45th Congressional District · Derek Tran (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
• California's 46th Congressional District · Lou Correa (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
• California's 47th Congressional District · Dave Min (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
• California's 48th Congressional District · Marni von Wilpert (D) wins in 97 of 100 simulations.
• California's 49th Congressional District · Mike Levin (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
• California's 50th Congressional District · Scott Peters (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
• California's 51st Congressional District · Sara Jacobs (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
• California's 52nd Congressional District · Juan Vargas (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.

How the forecast works