US Midterms 2026 Live Forecast

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A forecast, not a result. · · How it works →

Built with AI (Claude Code) · not affiliated with any campaign, party or outlet · Voting information: vote.gov or your state election office

About this forecast

Probabilities come from tens of thousands of simulated elections with correlated errors. Margins are the left candidate minus the right candidate, in points. Ratings: Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections. Map: U.S. Census Bureau boundaries via us-atlas.

How the forecast works, data sources and CSV downloads