How this was built
MT26 is a live forecast of the 2026 US midterm elections: all 435 House seats, the 35 Senate races and the 36 governor races, 506 in all. One developer built it with Claude Code, Anthropic's AI coding tool, in about two and a half days. Work started in the early hours of 28 October 2026, while the same setup was still running an election-night forecaster for Israel's Knesset election. The developer set the goals and made the calls. Claude Code wrote the model, the data pipeline, the 3D Lab and these pages, in one long working session of more than 600 tool steps.
What the model does. Each race blends three signals: the district's partisan lean, expert ratings and public polls. The model then simulates the election 20,000 times, with errors shared across similar races, so a polling miss in one state tends to show up in its neighbours too. "88 of 100" means that party won control in 88 of every 100 simulated elections. It is a forecast, not a result, and a 1-in-5 outcome happens one time in five.
How it runs. A Cloudflare Worker serves the site. Polls and ratings refresh every hour until Election Day morning, and the forecast is re-run after each refresh. The Lab draws eight interactive views, seven of them in 3D, mostly of the same simulations. Full details and CSV downloads are on the methodology page.
What it is not. MT26 is independent and non-commercial, and not affiliated with any campaign, party or outlet. Its visit counter uses no cookies and stores no IP addresses: it records only the page, campaign tags, referring site and country of each visit, nothing that identifies a visitor.