Texas 2026 elections
Forecast for Senate, governor and 38 House races. Chances count wins in simulated elections. A forecast, not a result. Data as of Nov 1, 10:49 AM ET.
Senate
- Texas Senate · James Talarico (D) wins in 58 of 100 simulations.
Governor
- Texas governor · Greg Abbott (R) wins in 82 of 100 simulations.
House
- Texas's 1st Congressional District · Nathaniel Moran (R) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
- Texas's 2nd Congressional District · Steve Toth (R) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
- Texas's 3rd Congressional District · Keith Self (R) wins in 99 of 100 simulations.
- Texas's 4th Congressional District · Pat Fallon (R) wins in 99 of 100 simulations.
- Texas's 5th Congressional District · Lance Gooden (R) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
- Texas's 6th Congressional District · Jake Ellzey (R) wins in 99 of 100 simulations.
- Texas's 7th Congressional District · Lizzie Fletcher (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
- Texas's 8th Congressional District · Jessica Hart Steinmann (R) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
- Texas's 9th Congressional District · Alex Mealer (R) wins in 98 of 100 simulations.
- Texas's 10th Congressional District · Chris Gober (R) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
- Texas's 11th Congressional District · August Pfluger (R) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
- Texas's 12th Congressional District · Craig Goldman (R) wins in 99 of 100 simulations.
- Texas's 13th Congressional District · Ronny Jackson (R) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
- Texas's 14th Congressional District · Randy Weber (R) wins in 99 of 100 simulations.
- Texas's 15th Congressional District · Monica De La Cruz (R) wins in 75 of 100 simulations.
- Texas's 16th Congressional District · Veronica Escobar (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
- Texas's 17th Congressional District · Pete Sessions (R) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
- Texas's 18th Congressional District · Christian Menefee (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
- Texas's 19th Congressional District · Tom Sell (R) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
- Texas's 20th Congressional District · Joaquin Castro (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
- Texas's 21st Congressional District · Mark Teixeira (R) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
- Texas's 22nd Congressional District · Trever Nehls (R) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
- Texas's 23rd Congressional District · Brandon Herrera (R) wins in 93 of 100 simulations.
- Texas's 24th Congressional District · Beth Van Duyne (R) wins in 99 of 100 simulations.
- Texas's 25th Congressional District · Roger Williams (R) wins in 99 of 100 simulations.
- Texas's 26th Congressional District · Brandon Gill (R) wins in 99 of 100 simulations.
- Texas's 27th Congressional District · Michael Cloud (R) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
- Texas's 28th Congressional District · Henry Cuellar (D) wins in 87 of 100 simulations.
- Texas's 29th Congressional District · Sylvia Garcia (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
- Texas's 30th Congressional District · Frederick Haynes III (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
- Texas's 31st Congressional District · John Carter (R) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
- Texas's 32nd Congressional District · Jace Yarbrough (R) wins in 99 of 100 simulations.
- Texas's 33rd Congressional District · Colin Allred (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
- Texas's 34th Congressional District · Vicente Gonzalez (D) wins in 77 of 100 simulations.
- Texas's 35th Congressional District · Carlos De La Cruz (R) wins in 54 of 100 simulations.
- Texas's 36th Congressional District · Brian Babin (R) wins in 99 of 100 simulations.
- Texas's 37th Congressional District · Greg Casar (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
- Texas's 38th Congressional District · Jon Bonck (R) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.