Florida 2026 elections
Forecast for Senate special election, governor and 28 House races. Chances count wins in simulated elections. A forecast, not a result. Data as of Nov 1, 10:49 AM ET.
Senate
- Florida Senate special election · Ashley Moody (R) wins in 97 of 100 simulations.
Governor
- Florida governor · Byron Donalds (R) wins in 89 of 100 simulations.
House
- Florida's 1st Congressional District · Jimmy Patronis (R) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
- Florida's 2nd Congressional District · Austin Rogers (R) wins in 99 of 100 simulations.
- Florida's 3rd Congressional District · Kat Cammack (R) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
- Florida's 4th Congressional District · Aaron Bean (R) wins in 99 of 100 simulations.
- Florida's 5th Congressional District · John Rutherford (R) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
- Florida's 6th Congressional District · Randy Fine (R) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
- Florida's 7th Congressional District · Ryan Elijah (R) wins in 93 of 100 simulations.
- Florida's 8th Congressional District · Mike Haridopolos (R) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
- Florida's 9th Congressional District · Dan Green (R) wins in 95 of 100 simulations.
- Florida's 10th Congressional District · Maxwell Frost (D) has no major-party opponent.
- Florida's 11th Congressional District · Joe Strada (R) wins in 99 of 100 simulations.
- Florida's 12th Congressional District · Gus Bilirakis (R) wins in 99 of 100 simulations.
- Florida's 13th Congressional District · Anna Paulina Luna (R) wins in 91 of 100 simulations.
- Florida's 14th Congressional District · Kathy Castor (D) wins in 60 of 100 simulations.
- Florida's 15th Congressional District · Laurel Lee (R) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
- Florida's 16th Congressional District · Sydney Gruters (R) wins in 96 of 100 simulations.
- Florida's 17th Congressional District · Greg Steube (R) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
- Florida's 18th Congressional District · Scott Franklin (R) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
- Florida's 19th Congressional District · Jim Schwartzel (R) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
- Florida's 20th Congressional District · Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
- Florida's 21st Congressional District · Brian Mast (R) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
- Florida's 22nd Congressional District · Casey Askar (R) wins in 53 of 100 simulations.
- Florida's 23rd Congressional District · Lois Frankel (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
- Florida's 24th Congressional District · Oliver Gilbert (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
- Florida's 25th Congressional District · Jared Moskowitz (D) wins in 81 of 100 simulations.
- Florida's 26th Congressional District · Mario Díaz-Balart (R) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
- Florida's 27th Congressional District · María Elvira Salazar (R) wins in 93 of 100 simulations.
- Florida's 28th Congressional District · Carlos Giménez (R) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.