Arizona 2026 elections
Forecast for governor and 9 House races. Chances count wins in simulated elections. A forecast, not a result. Data as of Nov 1, 10:49 AM ET.
Governor
- Arizona governor · Katie Hobbs (D) wins in 97 of 100 simulations.
House
- Arizona's 1st Congressional District · Amish Shah (D) wins in 88 of 100 simulations.
- Arizona's 2nd Congressional District · Eli Crane (R) wins in 91 of 100 simulations.
- Arizona's 3rd Congressional District · Yassamin Ansari (D) has no major-party opponent.
- Arizona's 4th Congressional District · Greg Stanton (D) wins in 99 of 100 simulations.
- Arizona's 5th Congressional District · Mark Lamb (R) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
- Arizona's 6th Congressional District · JoAnna Mendoza (D) wins in 86 of 100 simulations.
- Arizona's 7th Congressional District · Adelita Grijalva (D) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
- Arizona's 8th Congressional District · Abraham Hamadeh (R) wins in 99 of 100 simulations.
- Arizona's 9th Congressional District · Paul Gosar (R) wins in more than 99 of 100 simulations.