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US Midterms 2026 Live Forecast

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Probabilities come from tens of thousands of simulated elections with correlated errors. Margins are the left candidate minus the right candidate, in points. Ratings: Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections. Map: U.S. Census Bureau boundaries via us-atlas.

How the forecast works, data sources and CSV downloads

Built with AI (Claude Code) · not affiliated with any campaign, party or outlet

Voting information: vote.gov or your state election office

A forecast, not a result.

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